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KCRG TV9 First Alert Forecast for Dubuque and the Tri-States

KCRG TV9 FIRST ALERT FORECAST FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 23, 201

TODAY:   PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

                HIGH 62.  NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH.              

TONIGHT:  MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  LOW 41. 

                    NORTHWEST WIND 15-30 MPH.  

TOMORROW:  MOSTLY CLOUDY, VERY WINDY AND COOLER WITH A SLIIGHT CHANCE OF

                           SHOWERS EARLY.  HIGH 46.  NORTHWEST WIND 20-40 MPH. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: 

WARMER AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MUCH COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.  HIGH’S IN THE 50’S & 60’S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE 40’S FRIDAY.  LOW’S IN THE 30’S & 40’S. 

MISSISSIPPI RIVER STAGE AT DUBUQUE:  13-FEET & FALLING

KCRG Weather Blog

Climate Prediction Center releases 2017-2018 winter outlook

The Climate Prediction Center issued its annual winter outlook last week. Numerous factors go into the forecast, including what will be happening with Pacific Ocean water temperatures off the coast of South America. There’s a good chance of those to be cooler than normal – known as La Niña – which does influence our weather in the Midwest. In general, La Niña leads to temperatures that are cooler than normal across the Midwest. While that is expected to be the case well to our north, the signals aren’t strong enough across our region to say the odds of it are notably higher. As a result, the winter outlook shows an equal chance of temperatures being below, above, or near normal. The chances of temperatures that are warmer than normal are higher across the southern United States. Precipitation, on the other hand, has a slightly higher chance of being above normal. That does not necessarily mean more snow, as precipitation includes both rain and snow. Most of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northern Rockies may be wetter, while the South has higher odds of being relatively dry. This outlook is a general overview of what’s expected from December through February. As always, our weather will vary. The fact that there isn’t a strong signal for the winter as a whole to be colder than normal doesn’t mean we won’t have cold snaps. Other factors that take place over shorter times and smaller regions, but are harder to know more than a few weeks in advance, will play into the trends.

Strong winds Monday night and Tuesday

Besides the cooler temperatures and cloudier days, another element of fall weather is the windier days. We’ll likely have our most blustery conditions of the season so far, starting tonight. An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will strengthen and deepen Monday night and Tuesday. This will cause our northwesterly winds to ramp up gradually through the overnight. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will be likely through Monday night, with gusts over 30 mph possible. Then, winds will be sustained at 25-35 mph on Tuesday with gusts over 40 mph possible. Occasionally, gusts could be close to 50. Adding to the not so pleasant conditions will be the chance for showers early on Tuesday, especially areas east of I-380. Winds will subside some into Tuesday night. However, another very windy day is likely on Friday.

Rainfall totals

Over the past 24 hours eastern Iowa picked up nearly a half inch of rain to an inch and a half. The rain is finally coming to an end as the cold front pushes farther east. Waterloo actually broke their daily rainfall amount yesterday with a total of 0.95”. The old record was set back in 1979 with a total of 0.77”. Here is a list of unofficial rainfall totals thus far. Fayette 1.90” Waukon 1.50” Oelwein 1.34” Eldorado 1.18” New Hampton 1.14” Marengo 1.0” Decorah 0.89” Central City 0.80” Elkader 0.50” Guttenberg 0.51” Vinton 0.51”

Strong to severe storms possible

Storm chances increase into the evening hours as the cold front pushes closer. Roughly around 7 pm storms will roll into eastern Iowa and continue throughout the overnight hours. A few storms have the potential to become strong to severe. At this time the majority of the area is under a Level One risk (Slight Risk) for strong storms. The area highlighted in yellow indicates the Level One Risk. Main threats include damaging winds and small hail. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain is also a concern. At this time rainfall totals look to stay around a half inch to roughly an inch of rain. Locally higher amounts are possible under stronger/ heavier thunderstorms. The rain will come to an end for the second half of Sunday, but clouds will stick around for some time. Temperatures will be significantly colder. Expect highs to only top out into the 50s.

Timing the weekend rainfall

As you’ve been noticing in the 9-day forecast this week, the rain chances haven’t gone away for the weekend. The automatic reaction may be to think the rain will ruin your plans. For the vast majority of us however, it probably won’t! Saturday – As a strong warm front lifts in from the south in the early to mid-morning, a few isolated showers may flare up. Once this front lifts north, we’ll be left with a mild, breezy and mainly dry afternoon. After 7pm, a line of showers (and maybe even a thunderstorm) will approach from the west very slowly. Plan on this rain to be around for Saturday evening and night. Sunday - We’ll need to walk a few showers out through 10am, then we are done. Clouds will likely linger for several hours after the rainfall. It’ll be cooler with upper 50s to lower 60s for highs.